From this morning’s Telegraph:
Hardliners in the Iranian regime have warned that the seizure of British naval personnel demonstrates that they can make trouble for the West whenever they want to and do so with impunity.
The bullish reaction from Teheran will reinforce the fears of western diplomats and military officials that more kidnap attempts may be planned.
The British handling of the crisis has been regarded with some concern in Washington, and a Pentagon defence official told The Sunday Telegraph: “The fear now is that this could be the first of many. If the Brits don’t change their rules of engagement, the Iranians could take more hostages almost at will.
“Iran has come out of this looking reasonable. If I were the Iranians, I would keep playing the same game. They have very successfully muddied the waters and bought themselves some more time. And in parts of the Middle East they will be seen as the good guys. They could do it time and again if they wanted to.”
Americans also expressed dismay that the British had suspended boarding operations in the Gulf while its tactics are reassessed.
“Iran has got what it wants. They have secured free passage for smuggling weapons into Iraq without a fight,” one US defence department official said.
I don’t think there’s any doubt that Iran’s position has been strengthened by these events. On the other hand prior to these events they could hardly have been weaker, and about any kind of event would make their hand stronger.
There are those who would suggest that this kidnapping of these British soldiers has placed Iran’s future, in terms of being able to secure nuclear power in jeopardy. In the world community would hardly be agreeable to allowing such a demonstrably hostile government have nuclear capability. In short, nobody was tremendously interested in trusting Iran with the means to kill them.
However, I doubt that Iran gives a damn about the approval of the world community. They’re going to be able to smuggle in whatever they want now that they are no longer being effectively monitored, and constrained.
