What Would Happen If (Insert Name Here) Withdrew From the Presidential Race? 

“What if” can be educational, and can focus the mind on what is important. that’s the basis behind Kemper-Trego, which is a troubleshooting process that I use on the job as a matter of routine. A number of IT houses have used this as a diagnostic aid, for a long time. I’m sure others do as well, though I can’t speak from experience.  It’s really a set of guidelines of what questions to ask about to kill a problem.  It formalizes the process of what things are, and what they are not.  Essentially, if you attack the problem from both sides like that you end up converging on what the real cause of your problem is.
With that formalized process in mind, I spent a little time last night, going over the whole of the field of presidential candidates, and Fred Thompson, who officially isn’t in that field as yet.  I mentally withdrew each individual candidate from the race, and then postulated what the result would be, as regards the outcome of the race.  Would the withdrawal of one candidate, turn the election over to the party opposite?

Interestingly enough, the only person who within those parameters that I could picture making such a change in the race, isn’t officially in the race yet.  Fred Thompson.

Think about it; if any one of the Democratic party candidates were to withdraw from the race, the rest of the candidates are close enough to each other as no matter, and the votes and support had by the withdrawing candidate would simply be redistributed amongst the remaining candidates. There is also the typical leftist wacko hate for anything right of Castro scenario to deal with.  The number of Democrats who would never vote for a Republican, is significantly higher, I think, than the number of Republicans who would never vote Democrat.  That’s a problem I will address at some point in the future.

The same can’t be said for the opposite side of the aisle.  True, the vast majority of the candidates on the Republican side are also close enough that a simple redistribution would happen, were one of them to drop out.  Of course there are a number of Republicans who will never vote Democrat.  But interestingly, those republicans who would never vote democrat have a problem voting for Republicans in name only, such as John McCain. Many of them feel Rudy Giuliani qualifies for that title as well.  And so on.
The glaring exception to this rule is former senator Fred Thompson.  His withdrawing from the race, would be tantamount, I think, to handing the election to whoever the Democratic party nominee ended up being.  At that point, it would be all over but the Democratic party coronation nomination process.  No bloody wonder that the Democrats have been focusing so tightly on him these last several weeks.  I suspect they’ve come to the same conclusion I have…. That he is in fact the biggest challenge are they have, the biggest threat against their retaking the white house.
So imagine my response this morning, when James Joyner links to a Rasmussen poll, which reports Fred Thompson in the lead over his closest rival, Rudy Giuliani, by some thirteen points.  Granted, that as James rightly points up, RCP places this poll as a bit of an outlier, but but the amount of strength he showing in other polls, which presumably present other filters, is testimony to the strength of the candidate, I think.

As James suggests, I don’t plan on putting too much stock in this one poll.  However, I can’t imagine that the small amount of distance between Fred Thompson and the lead position in each one of the other polls, would not be made up by the simple act of officially declaring for the nomination.

I suspect that the chances of him actually dropping out are rather small at this stage of the game.  And so, I imagine that Fred Thompson with the act of declaring for the nomination, will cause a collective sigh of relief among Republicans.  And, of course, a sense of panic among Democrats, who will immediately jump on the ‘attack Thompson’ bandwagon before the echo dies.