The latest Rasmussen poll would seem to suggest that the race for the republican presidential nomination has become somewhat more stable, with former senator Fred Thompson leading the way.
He’s not even declared, yet. Just in case you’ve forgotten. An interesting twist on the conventional wisdom, however is that Rudy Giuliani would clean up amongst centrists. That’s not happening ;
Thompson has a 16-point advantage over Giuliani among conservatives while Giuliani holds an even larger edge among moderate voters. However, in the race for the Republican Presidential nomination, there are always more conservative voters than moderates.
Some other points from the polling:
McCain’s campaign is in serious trouble. The man once considered the dominant frontrunner had struggled for months. Over the past six weeks, his fervent support for the unpopular immigration reform bill may have been the final straw that doomed his campaign. His poll numbers are now closer to Huckabee and Brownback rather than Thompson and Giuliani. Media reports say the Arizona Senator is running very low on cash and has dramatically reduced his campaign staff. Last week, the Senator himself had to deny reports that he’d be out of the race by September.
Funny how McCain’s people have failed to mention all of this in the stuff they keep putting in my mailbox, in their efforts to get me on their bandwagon. He’s already toast. It’s down to how far the initial momentum will carry him. From here it looks like McCain won’t make it to September.
Also of interest, according to the poll, the number of people identifying themselves as republicans increased last month, which is the first such increase this year. My guess is, this change can be directly tied to Thompson. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues, once he actually declares.
