Will far- leftist Ralph Nader take votes away from whoever the Democrats cough up?
Probably.
Will it be as many votes as last time?
I don’t know, but I tend to doubt it.
Where it will *really* cost the Democrats is not what voters go directly to Nader, but what swing voters get turned off by the DNC’s swing to the left, trying to counter Nader. This factor is harder to measure because of the vaiables involved, but the bottom line is it’ll be quite a few, and those voters will vote for George W. Bush. Given the level of paranoia coming from the DNC these days, the Democrats certainly see this factor as a threat, though I guarantee you they’ll never frame it this way. The Democrats don’t want to turn of their leftist base.
Will Nader’s running matter in the outcome of this election?
No. George W. Bush will be re-elected with, or without Nader’s involvement. The only change will be width of the margin of victory for the Republicans.
Tags: BitsBlog
